Should forecasting El Nino’s onset be distinguished from forecasting its post-onset locked-in phase? If an El Nino occurs in December 2014, is it the same one forecast earlier in 2014? Should the forecast of El Nino’s onset be considered experimental? Should the post-onset forecasts be considered operational? To what extent do the various oscillations impact the forecasting of El Nino’s onset and teleconnections?
A review of the literature on the concept of surprise and how it is related
“Risk Mapping of El Niño impacts on climate, seasonality and society using Köppens Geiger classification
Cape Town – Cape Town authorities should have begun implementing water augmentation schemes in